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Consumer confidence in the US dipped to a seven-month low mid-Q3, even as many felt the current economic climate seemed more positive. The present-conditions index climbed about 7 points to 121, but the expectations gauge dropped nearly 6 points to 68—falling below the threshold often linked to recession risk. Early in Q3, employers trimmed 23,000 jobs and unemployment nudged up to around 4%. Interestingly, this shift was mostly due to people leaving the workforce, not because hiring increased. Despite a softer overall outlook, expectations around homebuying only eased slightly and even continued to trend upward. About 61% of consumers still anticipate higher interest rates, and with federal policymakers keeping rates steady, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated for the rest of the year. For those navigating the real estate market in Massachusetts or Rhode Island, understanding these broader trends can help set realistic expectations and prepare for what’s ahead.

We’re seeing a noticeable shift in the housing market right now. Over the four weeks ending August 23, there was a slight uptick in new US listings (up 0.4% week-over-week) and total homes for sale (up 0.5%), pushing inventory to its highest point since early in the second quarter. Yet, pending home sales dipped by 1.1%, hitting a six-month low. High housing costs are sidelining many buyers, even as more properties become available nationwide. The median US home-sale price climbed 1.9% year-over-year to just above $400,000, while average mortgage rates hovered near 7%—their highest point in roughly 13 months.

For buyers, these conditions mean more choices and, often, more room to negotiate—especially on homes that have been listed for several weeks. Sellers, meanwhile, are finding that realistic pricing is key, rather than aiming for the peaks of previous years. In my work across Massachusetts and Rhode Island, I’ve seen firsthand how understanding these trends can help both buyers and sellers make smart, confident decisions.

Luxury home sales across the US are as diverse as the markets themselves, with recent top transactions ranging dramatically from $3.7 million all the way up to an impressive $130 million. Some of the highest sales came in at $47M, $40.2M, $40M, $21.2M, $19M, $18M, and $17.5M, highlighting just how deep the luxury segment goes in certain regions. Notably, in four markets, even the fifth-highest sales were above $10 million—a clear sign of especially robust luxury demand. One market stood out for its consistency, with its top five sales tightly clustered between $24M and $40M. This data comes from publicly available listings, so private transactions may not be reflected, and in nondisclosure areas, figures are based on listing prices rather than closed sales. While most of my clients are navigating the Massachusetts and Rhode Island markets in a different price bracket, keeping an eye on these national trends helps me provide informed guidance, whether you're aiming for your first home or exploring the upper tiers of the market.

As we move through early Q3, the latest figures show US existing-home sales dipped 1.7% month-over-month, but still finished up 0.7% compared to last year. This means completed transactions are holding slightly above last summer’s pace—something I’m seeing firsthand in both Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Median prices reached $434,100, marking the 37th consecutive month of yearly increases. For many homeowners, that’s more equity to track and consider for future decisions. Inventory remains tight, ending early Q3 at 1.54 million homes (down 1.9% month-over-month and 0.6% year-over-year), so for buyers, closely monitoring new listings is as important as ever. Interestingly, even with rising prices, national housing affordability has improved, which tells me there are still opportunities for well-prepared buyers—especially as value, timing, and available choices start to align. With mortgage rates recently averaging in the high 6% range for a 30-year fixed loan, any easing could offer additional support for buyers as the summer market unfolds. If you have questions about how these trends might affect your plans, I’m always here to offer perspective and guidance.

We often hear about 'price stability' as if it’s something we can count on, but in reality, the U.S. economy doesn’t work that way. When prices rise for one thing—say, a popular vacation rental or college tuition—it might be because consumers are spending less elsewhere, not because everything is getting more expensive together. Just look at technology: as smartphones became more affordable and accessible, other limited resources like hotel rooms or event tickets grew pricier. This perspective challenges the idea that the central bank can truly control price stability, since global trends and millions of transactions shape how much we pay for goods and services. For those of us navigating major investments—like buying or selling a home—a steady dollar could encourage more investment in real estate, instead of people focusing on inflation hedges. Changing prices aren’t always a sign of trouble; sometimes, they show progress and new opportunities across the economy. That’s something I always keep in mind when helping clients make sense of the market and find the right move for their future.

We're seeing a real shift in the market: buyers are finally getting more leverage in many neighborhoods. With competition cooling, builders are stepping up with incentives, mortgage-rate buydowns, and price adjustments to help bring buyers off the fence. There are more homes available now, meaning you have the breathing room to compare options without feeling rushed into making an offer. While higher mortgage rates are still making many buyers cautious, the increased flexibility and negotiating power can open new doors for those ready to make a move. As someone who’s helped clients navigate both competitive and balanced markets in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, I know how these changes can impact your search—and how to help you make the most of them.